Defense stocks are rallying… but investors should still stay grounded.

‌

Over the past month, Singapore-listed defense-related companies such as ST Engineering, Nordic Group and Seatrium have been drawing strong investor interest.

‌

With tensions involving Iran and rising global security concerns, the defense sector has naturally come into sharper focus.

‌

When speaking with Lianhe Zaobao, my key message was this.

‌

While geopolitical tensions have boosted sentiment, a significant portion of the optimism may already be reflected in current prices. We are seeing a similar pattern globally with major defense names like Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman.

‌

For investors, the takeaway is simple.

‌

Stay patient on entry points, and focus on companies with strong order books, clear technological capabilities, and exposure to long-term defense spending trends.

‌

Even if individual conflicts cool down, global defense spending is unlikely to reverse overnight. The structural trend remains intact.

‌

Appreciate the opportunity to share my views with Lianhe Zaobao.

‌

Special thanks to Zaobao Business Journalist Tobby Siew (财经新闻记者 萧维旸) for the thoughtful questions and well-balanced coverage, always a pleasure seeing careful journalism bring clarity to complex market themes.

‌

E-article: https://www.zaobao.com.sg/finance/singapore/story20260316-8743662

‌

#DefenseStocks #Zaobao #TradeSGX #danccs

𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞t 𝐔𝐩𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞 *17/3/26*

.

STI: 4868 (+26) | HSI: 25834 (+368) | Dow: 46946 (+388) | S&P: 6699 (+67) | Nasdaq: 22374 (+268)

.

*US Markets Overnight!*

.

*Oil Cools, Tech Rules*

.

Wall Street bounced back Monday, shaking off last week’s oil scare. The S&P 500 +1.0%, Nasdaq +1.2%, Dow +388 points (+0.8%). Not exactly a moonshot, but a solid “risk-on” reset after three straight down weeks.

.

The main driver, *oil* blinked. West Texas Intermediate crude slid nearly 5% to about $94 after briefly topping $102 earlier in the day, as talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz eased fears of a prolonged supply choke. Brent crude still hovered around $100, but the message was clear, if tankers keep moving, the panic premium may evaporate just as fast as it appeared.

Geopolitics is still simmering. Donald Trump is reportedly trying to assemble a naval escort coalition for ships in the strait, while Scott Bessent said Iranian tankers have already been allowed to pass to keep global supply flowing.

.

*Rates* also gave equities a helping hand. The U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield slipped to 4.23% from above 4.28% on Friday, just days before the Federal Reserve rate decision. A small move, but enough to remind markets that the macro backdrop still matters more than the headline du jour.

Across assets, the defensive trade softened. *Gold* dropped nearly 1%, *Silver* edged lower, and the *USD* slipped 0.6%. Meanwhile Bitcoin clawed back to around $74K after dipping below $71K overnight.

.

Big Tech did its usual heavy lifting. All the Magnificent Seven finished higher. *Meta Platforms* led the pack, +2.3%, after reports it may cut jobs to offset ballooning AI costs. Slightly ironic, layoffs to fund the machines replacing people, but investors clearly liked the margin math.

.

*Nvidia* gained 1.6% as CEO Jensen Huang kicked off the company’s GPU Technology Conference, projecting a jaw-dropping $1 trillion in orders for its Blackwell and Vera Rubin AI systems through 2027. Ambitious? Absolutely. But in this AI cycle, Nvidia keeps setting the bar, and then raising it.

.

For now, as I see it, Monday looked less like a rally and more like a collective exhale. Now the real question, will the Fed keep the calm going, or remind markets who actually runs the show.

.

*What’s Brewing Today!*

.

I often think about what it really means to stand firm. In a world where markets swing wildly and headlines can turn optimism into fear overnight, few things teach you patience quite like a resilient company.

Today, 𝐁𝐮𝐦𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐦𝐚 𝐀𝐠𝐫𝐢 (stock code: P8Z) reminded me of that lesson. It didn’t just move, it quietly surged to a new all-time high, breaking through its previous peak on strong volume. For those watching closely, the message was clear: this isn’t luck, it’s endurance.

In the face of geopolitical uncertainties and a volatile sector, it stands tall, not by chasing the spotlight, but by navigating challenges with quiet strength. Watching it, I felt something rare, an admiration for a business that grows steadily and reliably, even when the winds around it are unpredictable.

Sure, there’s no guarantee the tide won’t change, given the inherently volatile nature of the palm oil sector. Prices can swing, geopolitics can shift, and unexpected challenges can appear overnight. But what makes Bumitama resilient is how it deflects these risks: strong dividends, disciplined operations, upstream positioning, and a proven ability to navigate uncertainty without panic. True resilience isn’t flashy, it’s enduring.

Reflecting on this breakout, I see more than just a price chart. I see perseverance, discipline, and the quiet strength to weather storms. In the face of uncertainty, Bumitama teaches a rare kind of courage, one that doesn’t make noise but still leaves a mark.

And so, as I watch it rise, one thought stays with me:

𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬𝐧’𝐭 𝐣𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐯𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐦. 𝐈𝐭'𝐬 𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐨 𝐝𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞 𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐫 𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐨𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐝𝐞.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/danccs_bumitamaagri-commoditystocks-resilienceamidvolatility-share-7439224768610037760-ONHh

.

===

*SGX Research Vault*

.

*Institutional Outflows Persist, as Buybacks Sustain and Insiders Accumulate

https://www.sgx.com/research-education/market-updates/20260316-institutional-outflows-persist-buybacks-sustain-and

*iEdge Next 50: Haw Par, Ultragreen to Lift Healthcare Weighting*

https://www.sgx.com/research-education/market-updates/20260316-iedge-next-50-haw-par-ultragreen-lift-healthcare

.

===

*Happening Today*

SG:

— Non-Oil Exports (YoY) (Feb) / Trade Balance (Feb)

US:

— ADP Employment Change Weekly / Pending Home Sales / API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

.

===

*SG Stock news*

— *SIA* saw a 3.8% rise in passenger traffic and an 8.8% increase in cargo loads, with load factors of 85.6% for passengers and 56.7% for cargo, supported by Lunar New Year demand and network expansion including Scoot’s new Medan service.

— * Renaissance United* ‘are expected to report a net loss for the period. The loss is predominately due to reduced installation sales to new customers by the Group's China gas distribution business.

.

Sources:

www.sgx.com

www.investing.com

www.theedgesingapore.com

.

Start your investment journey here:

https://tinyurl.com/gotopoems

.

Cheers!

Dan

Disclaimer: https://tinyurl.com/dan-disclaimer

.

#dailyupdate #tradeSGX #POEMS #danccs

But when markets panic… opportunities can appear.

I turned on my 1GT Indicator and found 𝟑 𝐇𝐊 𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐜𝐤𝐬 𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐡 𝐰𝐚𝐭𝐜𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐫𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐧𝐨𝐰 — and you can actually buy them on SGX via SDR.

Watch the breakdown here:
📺 https://youtu.be/_TyGWq99XmE

$AEM SGD(AWX.SI) Approaching the 3.50 resistance amidst general market weakness as prices potentially looks to consolidate under the resistance, with the 3.00 support holding.

All 3 Moving Averages continues to point up, confirming the uptrend remains intact. If prices are able to break and hold above the immediate resistance, higher target drawn toward the 4.00 psychological level.

3 1GT Bullish signals still present, could the 4th be seen soon?

$PanUnited(P52.SI) With prices testing the 1.50 psychological level, where if we're able to see prices hold firmly above this level, a new higher support could be formed.

Longer term uptrend still aligned with the shorter term momentum, despite general market weakness.

Still seeing the 4 1GT Bullish signals playing out, with next higher target drawn toward the 1.70 resistance first.

@sgsiasorg Calling all NetLink NBN Trust unitholders!

Join us for an exclusive briefing hosted by SIAS with NetLink’s management team. Gain key insights into FY25 highlights and discover what’s ahead for FY26. Don’t miss this opportunity to get your questions answered and stay informed.

Date: 9 July, Wednesday

Time: 12.00pm - 1.00pm SGT
Location: SIAS Training Room

Register now: https://bit.ly/3HK3V2r

#NetLinkNBNTrust #SIAS #InvestorBriefing

@sgsiasorg Calling all NetLink NBN Trust unitholders!

Join us for an exclusive briefing hosted by SIAS with NetLink’s management team. Gain key insights into FY25 highlights and discover what’s ahead for FY26. Don’t miss this opportunity to get your questions answered and stay informed.

Date: 9 July, Wednesday

Time: 12.00pm - 1.00pm SGT
Location: SIAS Training Room

Register now: https://bit.ly/3HK3V2r

#NetLinkNBNTrust #SIAS #InvestorBriefing

Struggling with investing? You’re not alone!

Many people find themselves stuck buying high, selling low, or not investing at all due to fear or past losses. If this sounds familiar, this session is for YOU.

Led by a seasoned expert with over 30 years of experience advising top institutional investors, this session offers practical tools to help you take control of your financial future.

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$DBS(D05.SI) $Geo Energy Res(RE4.SI) $NIO Inc. USD OV(NIO.SI)
https://youtu.be/eDEi_66QytQ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hpx7qa3cudM
$DBS(D05.SI) $UOB(U11.SI) $OCBC Bank(O39.SI) $Singtel(Z74.SI) $NIO Inc. USD OV(NIO.SI)

https://youtu.be/f1ORyjXUWQY
$DBS(D05.SI) $UOB(U11.SI) $ST Engineering(S63.SI) $Geo Energy Res(RE4.SI) $ASTI^(575.SI)

Are investors focusing too much on headline DPU when evaluating Singapore REITs? Michelle Martin examines why the familiar distribution-per-unit number may not tell the full story.

In this episode of Money and Me, we explore whether investors should shift their focus from the quantity of distributions to the quality and sustainability behind them.
‌
REIT specialist and Wealth Advisory Director Kenny Loh introduces a new framework - the Management Efficiency Index (MEI) - meant to help investors evaluate how effectively REIT managers generate and protect long-term income.

The conversation also unpacks the risks behind 100% payout strategies, accounting optic moves, and the impact of management fees paid in units.
‌
With AGM season approaching, Kenny shares the key questions retail investors should ask management teams to better understand the resilience of distributions.

Any investor heading to a REIT AGM would benefit from knowing the right questions to ask to dive beyond the numbers to get at management "sweat equity".
‌
You can listen to the podcast over here. https://reitsavvy.com/insights/money-and-m...
‌
‌
Kenny Loh is a distinguished MAS Private Wealth Advisor (RNF: LKK300389588) representing Financial Alliance with a specialization in holistic investment planning and estate management. He excels in assisting clients to grow their investment capital and establish passive income streams for retirement. Kenny also facilitates tax-efficient portfolio transfers to beneficiaries, ensuring tax-efficient capital appreciation through risk mitigation approaches and optimized wealth transfer through strategic asset structuring.
👉 https://www.kennyloh.net/

$FSTAS351020(FSTAS351020.IN)‌ ‌ $LION-PHILLIP S-REIT(CLR.SI)‌ ‌ $CSOP iEdge SREIT ETF US$(SRU.SI)‌ ‌ $CSOP iEdge SREIT ETF S$(SRT.SI)‌ ‌ $UOB AP GRN REIT S$(GRN.SI)‌ ‌ $UOB AP GRN REIT US$(GRE.SI)‌ ‌ $BHG Retail Reit(BMGU.SI)‌ ‌ $CapLand IntCom T(C38U.SI)‌ ‌ $CapLand China T(AU8U.SI)‌ ‌ $Fortune Reit HKD(F25U.SI)‌ ‌ $Frasers Cpt Tr(J69U.SI)‌ ‌ $Lippo Malls Tr(D5IU.SI)‌ ‌ $Mapletree PanAsia Com Tr(N2IU.SI)‌ ‌ $StarhillGbl Reit(P40U.SI)‌ ‌ $IREIT Global(UD1U.SI)‌ ‌$Keppel Reit(K71U.SI)‌ ‌ $ManulifeReit USD(BTOU.SI)‌ ‌ $OUEREIT(TS0U.SI)‌ ‌ $Suntec Reit(T82U.SI)‌ ‌ $AIMSAMP Cap Reit(O5RU.SI)‌ ‌ $CapitaLand Ascendas REIT(A17U.SI)‌ ‌ $EC World Reit(BWCU.SI)‌ ‌ $ESR-REIT(J91U.SI)‌ ‌ $Frasers L&C Tr(BUOU.SI)‌ ‌ $Frasers L&I Tr AUD(BWQU.SI)‌ ‌ $Keppel DC Reit(AJBU.SI)‌ ‌ $Mapletree Ind Tr(ME8U.SI)‌ ‌ $Mapletree Log Tr(M44U.SI)‌ ‌ $Sabana Reit(M1GU.SI)‌ ‌ $Far East HTrust(Q5T.SI)‌ ‌ $CDL HTrust(J85.SI)‌ ‌ $CapLand Ascott T(HMN.SI)‌ ‌ $Frasers HTrust(ACV.SI)‌ ‌ $First Reit(AW9U.SI)‌ ‌ $ParkwayLife Reit(C2PU.SI)‌ ‌ $Dasin Retail Tr(CEDU.SI)‌ ‌ $NikkoAM-STC Asia REIT(CFA.SI)‌ ‌ $Sasseur Reit(CRPU.SI)‌ ‌ $Nikko AM STI ETF(G3B.SI)‌ ‌ $STI ETF(ES3.SI)‌ ‌$CapLand India T(CY6U.SI)‌ ‌ ‌$Acro HTrust USD(XZL.SI)‌ ‌ $Keppel Reit(K71U.SI)‌ ‌ $Prime US ReitUSD(OXMU.SI)‌ ‌ $Lendlease Reit(JYEU.SI)‌ ‌ $NikkoAM-STC Asia REIT(CFA.SI)‌ ‌ $ELITE UK REIT(MXNU.SI)‌ ‌ $UtdHampshReitUSD(ODBU.SI)‌ ‌ $STONEWEG EUROPEAN REIT(CWBU.SI)‌ $Cromwell Reit SGD(CWCU.SI)‌ ‌ $CapitaLandInvest(9CI.SI)‌ ‌ $Daiwa Hse Log Tr(DHLU.SI)‌ ‌ $DigiCore Reit USD(DCRU.SI)‌ ‌ $PARAGON REIT(SK6U.SI) $Stoneweg EUTrust EUR(SET.SI) $Stoneweg EUTrust SGD(SEB.SI) $ESR REIT(9A4U.SI) $Cent Accom REIT(8C8U.SI) $NTT DC REIT USD(NTDU.SI) $UIBREIT(UIBU.SI)

While $DBS(D05.SI) and $OCBC Bank(O39.SI) have been grabbing the headlines with record buybacks and "yield-chasing" rallies, United Overseas Bank (UOB) $UOB(U11.SI) is currently telling a very different story on the charts.

As we hit mid-March 2026, UOB is sitting at a critical technical and fundamental crossroads. Here is my deep dive into why this might be the most "interesting" play of the Big Three right now.

1. Technical Analysis: The Battle for the 200-Day MA

‌

Looking at the current chart, UOB is showing significantly more "friction" than its peers.

• The Descending Channel: Throughout the tail end of 2025, UOB traded within a clear descending channel (highlighted in blue on the chart). While we saw a bullish breakout in early 2026, that momentum has stalled.


• The "Line in the Sand": The price is currently testing the 200-day Moving Average (Green line) at $35.65. In technical terms, this is the frontier between a bull and bear market for the stock.


• Resistance Clusters: Both the 20-day (Red) and 50-day (Blue) MAs have crossed above the current price ($36.16), acting as a "ceiling" at the $37.00 level.


• Verdict: We need to see a decisive bounce off the $35.65 support. If it holds, we form a "double bottom" relative to the March 9th dip. If it breaks, the next major support isn't until the $33.50 zone.

2. Fundamental Analysis: Short-Term Pain, Long-Term ASEAN Gain

‌

UOB’s recent earnings moderation has put some downward pressure on the stock, but the underlying "Value" story is intact.

• Provisioning for Safety: UOB recently reported a moderated net profit of $4.7 billion. The "miss" was largely due to management being proactive—raising general allowances for their ASEAN portfolios (Thailand and Indonesia) to buffer against global macro volatility.


• The Citi Catalyst: The integration of Citigroup’s consumer business is finally paying off. Wealth management fee income hit a record $2.6 billion, showing that UOB is successfully pivoting toward high-margin recurring income.


• Valuation: At a Price-to-Book (P/B) of 1.23x, UOB is the "cheapest" of the three banks. For investors who believe in a mean-reversion, there is significant "valuation gap" to be closed compared to DBS.

3. Macro Outlook: Rates vs. Regional Growth

‌

As a regional specialist, UOB’s 2026 performance is tied to two moving parts:

1. The Fed Pivot: With interest rate cuts projected for 2H 2026, UOB’s Net Interest Margin (NIM) will likely stabilize around 1.75%. The bank is betting that increased loan volume in Southeast Asia will offset the lower rates.


2. Geopolitical Hedge: High oil prices ($100+/bbl) and Middle East tensions are driving capital into "Safe Haven" markets like Singapore. UOB’s strong capital position (CET1 ratio of 14.9%) makes it a resilient choice during global turbulence.

The Bottom Line

‌

UOB is currently a Contrarian Value Play. It doesn't have the "easy" momentum of OCBC right now, but it offers the best entry price for long-term investors.

• Support to Watch: $35.65 (200d MA).


• Target: A recovery toward the $39.50 previous high once regional provisions stabilize.


• Yield: Currently yielding a healthy ~5.4%, which provides a solid income floor while you wait for the capital appreciation.

Are you adding UOB at these levels to capture the valuation gap, or are you waiting for a clearer breakout above the 50-day MA? Let's hear your thoughts below!

Kenny Loh is a distinguished MAS Private Wealth Advisor (RNF: LKK300389588) representing Financial Alliance with a specialization in holistic investment planning and estate management. He excels in assisting clients to grow their investment capital and establish passive income streams for retirement. Kenny also facilitates tax-efficient portfolio transfers to beneficiaries, ensuring tax-efficient capital appreciation through risk mitigation approaches and optimized wealth transfer through strategic asset structuring.

As of March 15, 2026, DBS $DBS(D05.SI) is navigating a complex period marked by "peak" earnings sentiment, significant capital returns, and a volatile geopolitical backdrop.

‌

1. Technical Analysis: The "CD to XD" Transition

‌

DBS is currently trading Cum-Dividend (CD). The stock has a significant dividend payout pending, which will create a mechanical price drop on the Ex-Dividend (XD) date.

• Key Dividend Dates: * Ex-Dividend Date: April 8, 2026.
  Dividend Amount: $0.81 per share (comprising a $0.66 final ordinary dividend + $0.15 capital return dividend).


• The XD Drop Expectation: On the morning of April 8, the share price will technically open approximately $0.81 lower than the previous day's close.


• Current Chart Setup: * The stock has pulled back from its 2026 highs (~$59.60) and is currently finding support near the $54.00 – $55.00 zone.


• Moving Averages: The price is currently oscillating around its 50-day and 200-day MAs. A break below $54.18 (the lower boundary of the current horizontal channel) would be technically bearish.

2. Fundamental Analysis (FA): The "Quality Over Growth" Story

‌

DBS reported a record FY2025, but management has guided for a "slight decline" in net profit for FY2026.

• Income Mix: While Net Interest Income (NII) is weakening due to rate cuts, Wealth Management fees are growing at mid-teens (+24% in Q4 2025). This pivot is essential for maintaining the high dividend floor.


• Asset Quality: The NPL ratio remains healthy at 1.0%, though specific allowances rose recently due to a Hong Kong real estate exposure.


• Valuation: DBS trades at a 2.2x – 2.4x Price-to-Book (P/B), which is significantly higher than its 10-year average of 1.4x. This suggests the stock is "priced for perfection" and sensitive to any earnings misses.

3. Macro & Interest Rate Outlook

‌

The "higher for longer" era is fading, and the market is pricing in the impact of a more dovish Fed.

• Interest Rates: The Fed is expected to cut rates by another 25–50 bps by year-end 2026. This puts downward pressure on the Singapore Overnight Rate Average (SORA), which is projected to stabilize around 1.25% to 1.50%.


• NIM Compression: DBS’s Net Interest Margin (NIM) is expected to decline further from the 2.01% seen in FY2025. However, roughly one-third of its commercial book is fixed-rate, providing a better buffer than its local peers.


• Geopolitics: Escalations in the Middle East have driven oil prices higher, causing a recent "risk-off" sentiment that has led to profit-taking in Singapore banks.

4. The Verdict: Predicted Next Movement

‌

Final Summary

The combination of rate cuts and high valuations suggests that capital appreciation will be limited for DBS in 2026. The stock is essentially evolving into a "super-utility" or a bond-proxy— attractive for its 5.1-5.4% forward yield, but unlikely to see the rapid price surges of 2024–2025.

‌

‌

Kenny Loh is a distinguished MAS Private Wealth Advisor (RNF: LKK300389588) representing Financial Alliance with a specialization in holistic investment planning and estate management. He excels in assisting clients to grow their investment capital and establish passive income streams for retirement. Kenny also facilitates tax-efficient portfolio transfers to beneficiaries, ensuring tax-efficient capital appreciation through risk mitigation approaches and optimized wealth transfer through strategic asset structuring.

DM kennyloh@fapl.sg to enquire his services.

Golden-Agri Resources (SGX: E5H) in Focus

Tensions in the Middle East have escalated over the past two weeks, pushing Brent crude above US$100 per barrel and lifting the broader energy complex. Higher energy prices are also supporting related commodities such as coal and crude palm oil, with CPO futures rising about 13% since the conflict began.

On SGX, plantation counters have reacted quickly. Wilmar International, First Resources, and Bumitama Agri have all surged alongside the commodity rally. As the sector gains momentum, investors may begin looking for the next laggard that could catch up with the move. One name worth watching is $Golden Agri-Res(E5H.SI).

Following stronger second-half results, Golden Agri reported a robust FY2025 performance. Full-year revenue reached a record high of nearly US$13 billion, representing a 19% year-on-year increase, while EBITDA grew 14% to US$1.26 billion, supported by improved second-half performance.

🔹 My Technical View:

Golden Agri has been consolidating between 0.27 and 0.30 for the past six months, while holding above its 200-day moving average, indicating underlying support. Last Friday the stock closed at 0.30, near the top of the range, suggesting a possible breakout.

My General X Momentum Trend-Following Indicator triggered a Buy signal on Friday, indicating momentum may be building.

Potential upside targets: 0.33 > 0.355 > 0.45 (if the commodity rally continues)

🔹 My Trade Plan:

I will initiate a buy if the price breaks above 0.30, confirming a breakout. If momentum continues, I plan to ride the uptrend together with my other commodity plays, including Wilmar International and Geo Energy Resources.

For reference only. Please refer to disclaimer: https://tinyurl.com/alex-disclaimer

📌If you find this analysis useful, I share weekly trading ideas and special trade setups via my WhatsApp community announcement group (one-way, no spam).

👉 To join, simply message ‘Weekly Ideas - InvestSG’ on WhatsApp: https://wa.me/6590908871

Today my article on $Seatrium Ltd(5E2.SI) was published in Lianhe Zaobao.
In the piece, I discussed the company’s long journey from the darkest years of the offshore & marine downturn to a possible path of recovery after years of restructuring and industry challenges.
With improving fundamentals and clearer technical signals, Seatrium may be worth starting to accumulate for investors who believe in the sector’s recovery.
Sharing the article here.

📌If you find this analysis useful, I share weekly trading ideas and special trade setups via my WhatsApp community announcement group (one-way, no spam).
👉 To join, simply message ‘Weekly Ideas - InvestSG’ on WhatsApp: https://wa.me/6590908871

The recent escalation of geopolitical tensions involving the US and Iran has pushed oil prices sharply higher, triggering a rally across the global energy complex.

Coal futures have also strengthened alongside oil. The Newcastle coal futures (NCF) surged following the rise in energy prices.

At the same time, the SGX M42 Thermal Coal Futures benchmark (M42F), which tracks Indonesian coal prices, has climbed to a year-high of US$54.80 per tonne, up from around US$40 six months ago, reinforcing the ongoing uptrend.

Higher coal benchmarks such as NCF and M42F are positive for coal producers like $Geo Energy Res(RE4.SI), as stronger coal prices translate into improved margins and operating cash flow.

📊FY2025 Results Highlights

Despite weaker coal prices, Geo Energy delivered strong operational results in FY2025:

• Coal sales increased 62% to 12.8 million tonnes
• Revenue rose 40% to US$562.7 million
• Net profit reached US$27.5 million

These results demonstrate the company’s ability to grow production and maintain profitability even in a softer coal price environment.

💡Key Investment Drivers:

(Source: Phillip Research)

1️⃣Production Growth

Geo Energy owns four coal mining concessions in Indonesia.

The group produced about 12.5 million tonnes of coal in FY2025, exceeding its production target. Production could increase significantly as output ramps up from the Triaryani (TRA) mine, with potential production reaching 20–25 million tonnes annually once supporting infrastructure is completed.

2️⃣Infrastructure & Toll Income

Geo Energy is developing an integrated haul road and jetty infrastructure, expected to be completed in mid-2026.

Once operational, the company can generate toll income from third-party miners using its haul road, creating a recurring revenue stream beyond coal mining.

With these developments, Geo Energy is gradually evolving from a pure coal miner into an integrated energy infrastructure player.

Phillip Securities maintains a BUY recommendation with a target price of S$0.59.

📈My Technical View:

Geo Energy’s share price has been consolidating since the start of the year within the 0.40–0.45 range, forming a clear base.

On 3 March, my General X trend-following indicator triggered a Buy signal. The stock then broke above the 0.45 resistance, even as the broader market was selling off.

Geo Energy ended last week with a high of 0.46, indicating strong relative momentum.

If the breakout holds, the next upside targets could be 0.52, followed by 0.60.

🌟My Trade Action

I initiated a position at 0.45 on 3 March, following the General X Buy signal.

For reference only. Please refer to disclaimer: https://tinyurl.com/alex-disclaimer

📌If you find this analysis useful, I share weekly trading ideas and special trade setups via my WhatsApp community announcement group (one-way, no spam).

👉 To join, simply message ‘Weekly Ideas - InvestSG’ on WhatsApp: https://wa.me/6590908871